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Alchemy strives not only to expand your wealth, but also the horizon of your financial knowledge. Thought Leadership is an exhaustive collection of blogs with additional inputs from industry experts about the different aspects to superlative asset management.

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Market Outlook Remains Positive

Nov 2021

A volatile October 2021 ended on a weak note, but the market was flat over the month. Small and midcap sectors underperformed, along with high-beta sectors like commodities. We remain optimistic on the markets given the strong growth rebound, r...

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Markets Continue To Rally

Oct 2021

The markets were strong through September 2021 with a 2.8% rally in the Nifty led by Nifty Auto, Realty and Infra. Small-caps and mid-caps had a strong month with 2x returns over the broader markets (see table below). The focus now shifts ...

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Reform Momentum Accelerates

Sep 2021

August 2021 was a strong month for the Nifty(+8.7%) with IT, FMCG and Energy leading the rally. There was some volatility, especially around the scare of a Fed taper, but that quickly dissipated on the back of a recovering economy and strong ea...

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Market regaining momentum

Aug 2021

July’21 was another flat month for the indices (Nifty +0.3%) with interesting internals: small-caps and mid-caps outperformed with IT, consumers and healthcare the key sectoral leaders at the expense of financials and metals. The momentum...

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Broader markets taking a pause

Jul 2021

The markets had a quiet June, with the Nifty flat (+1%) and defensive sectors like IT and FMCG outperforming – banks were the major drag. The lull could last for some time, but we believe this is a pause in a longer bull market driven by ...

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Cyclicals leading the market

Jun 2021

The markets bounced back in May after two flat months, led primarily by the second Covid wave starting to recede and some acceleration in vaccination. Some of the laggard sectors over Feb-Mar'21 like banking, auto, energy and infrastructure...

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Battling through the Covid stress

May 2021

We hope that you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. The second Covid wave has been more deadly and widespread than the first,and has had a devastating impact on many families. We would exhort you to observe all the necessary precautions ...

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Covid, earnings and rates

Apr 2021

We are now faced with a sudden surge of Covid cases, especially in Mumbai and Maharashtra. We hope that you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. We urge you to be careful and observe the necessary precautions – wearing masks, washing...

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Buckle up for a choppy month

Mar 2021

We expect increased market choppiness in March after the relentless one-way upswing for almost a year. Some near-term headwinds are building up: rising yields both in India and the US, rising COVID infections and commodity price pressures. This...

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A Growth-Stimulating Budget

Feb 2021

The watershed FY22 budget has, in our view, changed the trajectory of the Indian economy and the markets. We now see a sustained recovery out of the post-pandemic slump and a multi-year growth cycle of 6%+, led by capital expenditure. This shou...

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2021: Positive Tailwinds to Continue

Jan 2021

We see markets remaining strong through CY21, based on global liquidity and a recovering domestic economy. The x-factor is likely to come from a robust global commodities rally, which creates some peculiar conditions for the Indian economy and ...

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Tailwinds From Global Liquidity

Dec 2020

It was another strong month for the markets with the Nifty rising 11.4 % led by banks, metals and capital goods. The key drivers were:
a) A favourable outcome on the US elections which helped contain global macro risks.
b) Conti...

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Corporate-Owned Banks: An Idea Whose Time Has Come

Nov 2020

The RBI working committee’s recommendation that corporate-promoted banks be awarded licenses should be implemented. India needs loan growth in double-digits for GDP above 6% - and we are stuck in a 6-8% rut for some time now.Faster loan g...

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Strong Markets Supported by Positive Catalysts

Nov 2020

The markets have bounced back sharply. Nifty was up 3.5% in October 2020 with the Nifty Bank leading the way with a 11.4% rally. This was led mainly by strong numbers and the positive commentary from private banks, giving the market greater com...

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Market Outlook: Sideways and Volatile

Oct 2020

The Nifty was soft in September with a -1.2% fall through the month – the main impact was on the Bank Nifty which fell -9.7%. The cuts were deeper intra-month, but a late rally helped recover some of the losses. We expect the broader indi...

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Market Looking For Macro Cues

Sep 2020

The markets continued to be strong with the Nifty rallying 3% in August, and the improved breadth evident in NSE Midcap (up 7.8%) and NSE Small cap (up 11.5%) both outperforming. Despite the markets looking through the 1Q GDP contraction of 23....

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RBI Steps In, Near-Term Risks Abate

Aug 2020

RBI’s restructuring guidelines of 6 August 2020 protect the largest and most volatile sector from near-term shocks. This is an important positive for the market and reduces the short-term downside risks. However, macro challenges persist,...

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Investment Approach For A Growth-Challenged Economy

Jul 2020

It was another strong month for the Nifty with a 7.5% move in the broader index, driven by a strong post-lockdown recovery and enabled by global liquidity. The initial macro trends have been positive but there is a long way to go for the econom...

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Earnings Visibility: Moment of Truth Approaches

Jun 2020

The Nifty had been resilient with a 3% correction in May 2020 followed by a 6% bounce in June 2020 (as on 08 June 2020). A clear direction will emerge, we think, only when there is greater visibility on the damage to the economy from the COVID-...

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Lending Financials - Medium-Term Challenges

Jun 2020

The six-year bull run for private banks and NBFCs (CY14-20) could take an extended pause. The macro shock of CY20 could narrow the investible universe for lending financials to 6-7 stocks, with lower returns than before. Investors, therefore,ma...

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Economic Package – Impact on Markets

May 2020

The economic package from the government seems to have disappointed the markets and the Nifty has corrected 6 % (as of May 18, 2020) from the peak of May 13, 2020. The package has focused and delivered on two key areas – preserving financ...

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Markets Rally, But Risks Remain

May 2020

The market rallied in April after a weak 1QCY20 – the Nifty was up 14.7% last month (as on 30th April, 2020) after a 23.2% correction in March 2020. We, however, believe that significant risks still remain and continue to be cautious in o...

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Economy And The Equity Markets, Post-COVID19

Apr 2020

We laid out our key worries for the economy in our CIO letter of Mar 23 – financial stability, a spiralling growth shock and risk aversion from banks choking credit. In this edition of the newsletter, we look at the important cues for the...

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COVID-19: Impact on Economic Prospects, Markets and Investments

Apr 2020

We are going through what by every measure is a great crisis is an understatement. The onset of the Covid-19 virus has put human lives at risk and created a global pandemic at an unprecedented scale with no known cure in the short to medium ter...

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Markets headed for a tough period

Mar 2020

The spread of the Corona virus, and its second-order impact on both India and the world, is a new and significant headwind for the market. A sharp slowdown in discretionary consumption could hurt near-term earnings, even for high-quality compan...

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Staying focused on Quality

Feb 2020

Union Budget FY21

The initial negative market reaction to the budget was more to do with unrealistic expectations than any negatives in the budget itself. As we argued last year, the impact of the budget on ea...

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Balancing opportunities and risks

Jan 2020

We approach 2020 with a cautious mindset, in the back of continued macro uncertainty. A muted consumption recovery is likely, but the investment cycle remains challenged and some risks to financial sector stability still persist. We remain focu...

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2020 – Past peak polarization and seeds of recovery

Jan 2020

At the outset I wish all of you and your families a very Happy New Year and a very healthy and successful 2020.

The year gone by…

2019 was a unique year for Indian markets. The aftermath of the IL&a...

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Markets pausing for breath

Dec 2019

The markets remained resilient through November 2019 with the Nifty rising 2.2% and the NSE Midcap rising 5.7%. The NSEBank was one of the key sectoral indices, rising >8% this month.

The concurrent indicators for the economy rema...

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The Market continues to be strong…

Nov 2019

October 2019 was another strong month for equities, with the Nifty rising 3.5% on the back of a 4% rally in September. A notable feature was that the Nifty midcap outperformed the Nifty, rising by 4.9%. The sectoral performance remained tilted ...

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A wait-and-watch quarter

Oct 2019

The decisive policy moves in 3QCY19 have dampened the pessimism around the markets and provided some support. The efficacy of these measures should be more visible in 4QCY19. We will continue to track some important indicators to assess the pro...

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Corporate Tax Cuts

Sep 2019

Breaking the cycle of negativity

The surprise corporate tax cuts announced by the Finance Minister on Friday morning (20 Sep 2019) are a significant stimulus to the economy and markets. Th...

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Fear of unknown risks

Sep 2019

The 7% correction† in the market (with poor internals) since April 2019 has created a better sync between expectations and reality. The momentum in the economy remains poor and gives little reason for comfort, but some government action ...

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Market in consolidation mode

Aug 2019

The rate cut has come and gone, but the post-budget sell-off in equities seems to be unabated and broad-based. The FPI tax was a small catalyst – the markets have belatedly started tracking the broader economy. The silver lining is that s...

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Market Outlook

Jul 2019

So what are the short-medium term implications of the budget on the markets?

As my colleague Seshadri mentioned, budgets are increasingly les...

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Budget Highlights 2019

Jul 2019

Also read, Market Outlook from Hiren Ved, CIO
Analysts of my vintage have horrific memories of budget days in the 90s. The speech would end around 9pm, the budget papers would be flo...

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India Markets: Post-election Outlook

Jun 2019

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won an absolute majority in India’s parliamentary elections last month. This paved the way for Narendra Modi to be re-appointed as Prime Minister for a second consecutive term. The markets have res...

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